Dry conditions have dominated southern Ontario over the past two weeks, with rainfall amounts ranging from 10 to 30 mm in most areas. The Bruce Peninsula and London region saw the highest precipitation, with totals between 25 and 35 mm. This dry spell has accelerated the corn and soybean harvest, and the forecast suggests mostly dry weather will continue through the end of November.
El Niño has contributed to warmer-than-normal temperatures across southern Ontario this fall, with readings averaging 2 C to 3 C above normal over the past 30 days. Since the start of November, temperatures have mostly hovered between 10 C and 20 C, over 5 C above the seasonal average. The long-range outlook predicts this warmth will persist into late November, allowing farmers to complete the row crop harvest by month's end.
Corn futures have declined for the ninth straight week, with the December contract dropping from late August highs to near the June lows. Prices are now just above US$4.40 per bushel. The market remains skeptical about yield expectations, despite the USDA's recent adjustment lowering the national corn estimate by 1.6 bushels per acre to 179.6 bushels. This revision reduced production to 15.89 billion bushels and ending stocks to 1.758 billion bushels, briefly sparking a rally of 10 to 15 cents per bushel.
The market rally following the USDA report is expected to be short-lived, as traders anticipate further yield increases in the January production report. The current weather forecast supports favorable harvest conditions over the next 10 days, which may further pressure corn prices.