OPEC+ Holds Steady on November Oil Production Targets

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current oil production targets for November, aligning with market expectations that no major policy shifts are expected until next year. The decision was made by seven core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, during a brief online meeting.

Despite this stability in targets, actual output levels remain significantly below quotas due to ongoing export disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Exports have fluctuated between 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months, keeping the oil market tight. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that while flows through the Strait of Hormuz have increased, production levels are still well below the set quotas.

Oil prices dipped on Friday after European leaders agreed to release diesel reserves at the request of US President Donald Trump. However, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, up from around $73 before the Iran war began in late February. The conflict has also delayed the group’s output capacity review, which is essential for determining 2027 production quotas due to the uncertainty it has introduced.

OPEC+ has been gradually raising output targets throughout 2026, but most increases have remained theoretical because of the Middle East conflict. In August, the seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day, up 630,000 barrels per day from July, yet still roughly five million barrels per day below prewar levels. The group currently has about two million barrels per day of output cuts in place, with any changes unlikely before 2027.