Strait of Hormuz LNG Flows Still Down 75 Despite September Rebound

LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of recovery, though volumes remain significantly lower than pre-war levels. Recent data from Bloomberg and Kpler indicates that at least three LNG carriers have passed through the strait since late last week, marking an increase in shipments. However, overall LNG flows are still over 75% below the levels seen before the conflict in Iran.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the eighth such incident in the past week. Despite these threats, September saw 21 LNG cargoes exit the strait, the highest monthly number since the war began, though still far below pre-war levels.

Pre-war, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global LNG supply, with three cargoes exiting daily. Current volumes are insufficient to impact global supply balances significantly. Many LNG carriers are now traveling in dark mode, complicating tracking and supply estimates.

The reduced LNG flows from the Middle East over the past six months have driven gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis. Buyers are competing for supply that does not need to transit the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating price pressures.