OPEC+ maintains November oil output targets amid Middle East tensions

The seven core OPEC+ producers decided on Sunday, 4 October 2026, to maintain their oil production targets for November 2026 at the same levels set in September. This marks the second consecutive month that the alliance, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, has chosen to hold output steady. The decision comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between the US and Iran, which has severely disrupted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ cited the need to monitor the oil market closely due to the risks posed by the Iran war and the resulting supply disruptions. The group acknowledged that actual production across several members remains below official targets, making quota increases largely symbolic. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted that OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market, as raising paper quotas that cannot be filled would risk the alliance's credibility.

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reviewed production data for July and August 2026 and reaffirmed compliance with the agreed production plan. The committee retains the authority to convene additional meetings or request a full ministerial session if conditions change, with its next scheduled meeting set for 29 November. Meanwhile, the broader OPEC+ framework remains in place until 31 December 2026.

The decision to keep production unchanged comes just two days after the Group of Seven and its partners agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks over four months. This coordinated release by the International Energy Agency highlights the shifting dynamics in the energy market, with consumer nations taking steps to stabilize supply in the face of constrained Gulf exports.