OPEC Output Surges as World Demand Dips

OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for September 2026 shows that OPEC 12 output increased by 346,000 barrels per day (kb/d) from July to August 2026. The largest increases came from Iraq, with a rise of 664 kb/d, followed by the UAE and Kuwait, which both saw increases of over 50 kb/d.

Iran was the only OPEC nation to experience a decrease in output, dropping by 399 kb/d in August. Saudi Arabia also saw a decline, down 75 kb/d from July. The net increase for Iraq and Iran combined was 265 kb/d, while the other 10 OPEC members experienced a net increase of 81 kb/d.

World demand for crude oil dropped by 4.39 kb/d in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, representing a 5.4% decrease. OECD commercial stocks increased by 9.8 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in July and stand at 47.9 Mb below the five-year average.

OPEC forecasts slower growth in US tight oil output in 2026 and 2027 compared to the EIA, with an expected increase of only 50 kb/d in 2026 and flat output in 2027.