Permian Growth Broadens Following Second-Quarter Earnings

The Permian Basin is experiencing broad-based growth in 2026, according to East Daley's review of second-quarter earnings. ExxonMobil remains the largest driver of production, but it's no longer the only operator pointing to meaningful gains due to higher oil prices. The company expects Permian production to increase from 1.6 MMboe/d in 2025 to roughly 1.8 MMboe/d in 2026, implying about 12.5% growth.

Diamondback Energy is also moving higher, raising its full-year production guidance to 1.0+ MMboe/d from 921 Mboe/d in 2025, implying at least 8.6% growth. Permian Resources and Matador Resources are guiding to significant production increases as well, with 5.7% and 6.7% growth, respectively.

Occidental Petroleum is pointing higher, with 2026 Permian guidance of 801-817 Mboe/d vs 786 Mboe/d in 2025, while ConocoPhillips reported record second-quarter Permian production of 922 Mboe/d. The upward guidance revisions are due to meaningfully higher oil prices, driven up by the Iran conflict.

However, not every producer is joining the push. Chevron is managing Permian production around 1 MMboe/d, a level it has said it plans to sustain for years. EOG Resources' 5% oil and 14% total production growth outlook is companywide, reflecting the annualization of its Encino acquisition in the Utica.