Petrobras Fuel Prices Under Pressure from Global Market Volatility

The escalating tensions in the Middle East and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have pushed global refining margins to historic highs, putting pressure on Petrobras fuel prices. The state-run oil company has been pricing diesel and gasoline below international levels since February, with the gap widening since the start of the Middle East war on February 28.

The recent increase in oil prices, driven by threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, has contributed to the upward pressure on diesel prices. The global refining margins for refined products have risen $30 over the past two months and are nearing record highs, according to Goldman Sachs. Diesel refining margins reached a record $102.20 per barrel last Monday.

The market conditions have widened the gap between global prices and those charged by Petrobras, with diesel being 88.3% cheaper than imported diesel or R$2.87 less per liter. Analyst Thiago Vetter notes that Petrobras has benefited from federal government subsidies designed to absorb the impact of war-driven volatility, but questions what will happen to these measures going forward.