Philippines Faces Rice Shortfall Amid El Niño and High Fertilizer Costs

The Philippines is facing a decline in milled rice production due to elevated fertilizer costs and the impact of El Niño. According to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, milled rice production is estimated at 12.25 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year, down from 12.36 million tonnes last year.

The FAS attributed the decline in production to reduced planting incentives due to high fertilizer costs and the moderate to strong El Niño. However, government programs aimed at supporting rice cultivation have helped maintain some level of production among farmers.

Rice consumption is expected to remain high, driven by population growth, with estimated demand reaching 17.65 million tonnes in 2026-27. To offset the anticipated production shortfall, imports are forecast at 5.2 million tonnes.

Corn production estimates were also lowered due to reduced yield and irrigation risks, with a projected 8.05 million tonnes in 2026-27, down from 8.2 million tonnes last year. Consumption of corn is expected to increase due to sustained growth in the poultry sector, while imports are set to rise sharply to meet feed demand.