Polymarket Odds Suggest 95% Chance of WTI Hitting $95 Per Barrel

WTI crude futures rose to nearly $95 per barrel on September 28, 2026, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This led to a surge in Polymarket odds, which showed a 67.5% chance that WTI would hit this price threshold.

The market-implied probability is based on traders' collective views and not an official forecast. As of 00:50 UTC on September 28, the $95 outcome led the board with a 67.5% reading, indicating a strong leaning towards another breakout, although not a guarantee.

The Iran-US conflict continues to impact oil prices, with traders watching closely for any diplomatic movement or physical disruptions in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping route, and recent events have led to sharp moves in crude prices.