Prediction Market Reveals August 2026 WTI Crude Oil Targets

The prediction market on Polymarket has released odds for what WTI Crude Oil (WTI) will hit in August 2026. The current top-ranked outcome is WTI reaching $75 with a reported probability of 79%, followed closely by WTI hitting $80 at 75% and $70 at 56.5%. The market gives a 61.5% chance of WTI touching both $80 and $70 during August 2026, suggesting that the month could cover a wide price range around a mid-$70s anchor.

However, there is asymmetry in the tail probabilities, with the upside side decaying more slowly than the downside side. The probabilities step down from 34% at $85 to 19.5% at $90 and 11% at $95, while on the downside they fall from 27% at $65 to 5.4% at $60 and 1.6% at $55.

This asymmetry suggests that an upward shock can travel farther than a downward shock during a single month, potentially due to factors such as supply interruptions or geopolitical escalations.

The market also assumes that August begins near the current inferred regime, with WTI's level before August being a strong determinant of its price path. This assumption could be weakened by sustained moves through $85 or $65 before August, especially if the price then stabilizes beyond those levels.