Qatari LNG Returns, But Who Can Afford It?

Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are gradually resuming after a six-month disruption, but the question now is whether buyers can afford it.

A Qatari cargo reached Pakistan last week, marking the first known LNG shipment from Qatar to cross the Hormuz Strait since July. However, this remains an exception: Hormuz traffic is still a fraction of pre-war levels, and LNG tankers have turned back from attempted crossings due to safety concerns.

The crisis has left many buyers struggling to replace lost Qatari volumes, which accounted for around 10% of Europe's LNG imports. Analyst Giovanni Bettinelli notes that vulnerability comes down to three factors: how much missing supply a buyer needs to replace on the spot market, how easily it can switch away from gas, and whether it can afford replacement cargoes at higher prices.

Pakistan and Bangladesh are among the most vulnerable, as they rely heavily on Qatari supply but lack the financial capacity to absorb higher spot prices. In contrast, India and Southeast Asia may face subsidy pressure but will likely prioritize oil products over LNG.