Quebec Separatists Favored to Win Election in Test for Carney
Quebec separatists are poised to win Monday's election in Canada's majority French-speaking province, marking a significant test for Prime Minister Mark Carney's message of national unity amidst tensions with the United States. Despite Carney's popularity in Quebec, the expected success of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is attributed more to local frustrations over affordability and declining public services than a strong push for independence. Recent polls indicate that about 30 percent of Quebecers support independence, while the PQ itself holds roughly 30 percent support, a figure that could translate into a majority in the province's 127-member National Assembly due to the first-past-the-post electoral system.
PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, known as PSPP, has pledged to call a referendum on independence if elected, though he has ruled out doing so while President Donald Trump is in office. 'A decision on Quebec's independence requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate,' Plamondon stated in August, adding that this debate should not be 'hijacked by the theatrics of an unpredictable president.' He has suggested that a referendum would not occur until at least 2029, citing the need for a stable environment for such a decision.
Carney's federal government faces a delicate balance as it navigates the potential return of separatist governance in Quebec and a non-binding independence vote in the oil-rich province of Alberta later this month. Carney has assured that his government will work 'with the next Quebec premier in a spirit of cooperative federalism.' Meanwhile, Plamondon has emphasized that any cooperation with the federal government would require respect for Quebec's autonomy, warning that he would not ignore 'unacceptable' disrespect. Polls in Quebec open at 9:30 a.m. (1330 GMT), with results expected a few hours after voting ends at 8:00 p.m.
Beyond the independence question, Plamondon's plans to target the British monarchy have gained significant traction. A 2025 Leger poll found that 87 percent of Quebecers feel no attachment to the British monarchy, and only 31 percent view King Charles III favorably. Plamondon has proposed abolishing the activities of the lieutenant governor in Quebec and reallocating the budget to combat homelessness, framing the current system as a 'masquerade that wastes money.'