Rio Tinto Shares Soar 53% in a Year, But Can They Keep Climbing?

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are continuing their upward trend, with a 2% increase in Wednesday's trading session. The mining stock is now up 21% for the year-to-date and has surged by an impressive 53% over the past 12 months.

The company's shift towards copper production has been a major contributor to its recent success. Rio Tinto has diversified away from iron ore, becoming a significant player in the copper market. This move has boosted the company's earnings, with a 28% increase in underlying EBITDA for the first half of FY26.

The copper business has seen an especially notable surge, with underlying EBITDA rising by 84% to US$5.7 billion. This represents around 36% to 39% of the company's total group earnings. Copper, along with aluminium and lithium, now accounts for more than half of Rio Tinto's underlying EBITDA.

However, not all analysts are convinced that the shares will continue to climb higher. The team at Morgans has a hold rating on the mining shares, citing iron ore's continued importance as an earnings driver. This leaves profits exposed to movements in commodity prices and Chinese demand. Given this balance of quality and cyclical risk, the shares now appear to be trading at fair value.