Russia Rejects Black Sea Grain Truce as Ukraine Warns Exports Could Stay Critical for Months

Russia has rejected all proposals for a new Black Sea grain deal that would allow Ukraine to resume large-scale agricultural exports by sea. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly a quarter of global grain exports, making disruptions in the Black Sea a major concern for global food markets.

Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi told Bloomberg that all possible rounds of negotiations have been tried but without success, adding that there are no signs of a Black Sea grain truce being reached in the coming months. 'Unfortunately, it is difficult to imagine any possible solutions to this issue in the coming months,' Vysotskyi said.

Ukrainian agricultural exports have already fallen sharply, with Ukraine shipping just 1.13 million tons of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil in August, compared with 2.6 million tons a year earlier, according to Trade Data Monitor. The figure has only been lower once since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, in April 2022.

Russia is also struggling with disruptions to its grain exports after Ukrainian forces began targeting Russian ports in the Azov and Black seas in July. Around 80% of Russia's grain exports pass through those ports, and SovEcon estimates that Russian grain exports fell to a 16-year low in August and September.