Russia's Grain Exports Plunge Amid Black Sea Disruptions

Russia's grain exports are expected to plummet this season due to disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks in the Black and Azov seas. According to Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of Russian analytical firm ProZerno, Russia will export approximately 8.5 million metric tons of grain from July through September, down significantly from last year's figure of 14 million metric tons.

The shutdown of major transshipment facilities, primarily in Novorossiysk, is mainly responsible for the decline. The buyer mix has also changed dramatically, with Iran becoming the main buyer due to the operation of the Caspian route. However, this shift has created a problem for Russia as most of its exports are wheat, which Iran is not interested in.

Petrichenko estimates that without traditional 'high water' in the Azov-Black Sea basin, Russia's maximum grain export potential for the current agricultural year would be 39 million metric tons. However, if Black Sea exports resume after the new year, the country could reach up to 45 million metric tons.