Russia's Wheat Exports Slump to Near Decade Low Amid Black Sea Tensions

Russia's wheat exports are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2016/17, according to agricultural analysts. The country's top consultancy, Sovecon, estimates that wheat exports will reach only 3-3.4 million metric tons in August, down from 4.5 million tons a year ago.

The decline is attributed to low prices and security risks on vital Black Sea shipping routes. Russia and Ukraine have been targeting ships and ports during their ongoing war, disrupting trade. Sovecon head Andrey Sizov noted that 'low export rates are increasing pressure on the domestic market.'

Russia's IKAR consultancy also lowered its forecast for wheat export potential in the current 2026/27 marketing season to 44.5 million tons from a previous expectation of 45 million tons.