Ryanair Cuts Winter Traffic Target Amid Soaring Jet Fuel Prices

Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost carrier, has revised its winter traffic forecast downward due to oil price exposure. The airline cited the need to reduce its unhedged oil prices and warned that competitors with weaker hedging strategies might face survival challenges during the upcoming winter season.

The disruption of crude oil and petroleum product deliveries from the Middle East has led to a rise in jet fuel prices, squeezing profitability across the global airline industry. Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its fuel costs at $67 per barrel but remains exposed to the remaining 20% at current jet fuel prices of approximately $140 per barrel.

The airline cut its winter traffic target to 214 million passengers from 216 million, expecting traffic to remain broadly flat year-over-year. Ryanair further indicated that if high oil prices persist into the 2026-27 season, short-haul airfares in Europe would likely increase materially to reflect higher fuel costs.