Rystad Energy Raises Probability of No U.S.-Iran Deal Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Rystad Energy has revised its U.S.-Iran scenario framework, raising the combined probability of no substantive agreement to 55 percent. This change is attributed to a renewed deterioration in security conditions around the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime attacks have resumed and Washington has reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Brent crude prices have surged over 18 percent in two weeks, climbing from $72 to above $85 per barrel, amid these tensions. Rystad now identifies August 16 as the critical near-term date for oil markets, when the 60-day memorandum of understanding negotiation window expires.

Rystad Energy's SVP Jorge Leon states that 'the narrow deal is still our base case,' but it has become a 'considerably less comfortable one.' The math behind this discomfort shows stalemate at 35 percent and renewed fighting at 20 percent combining to 55 percent, making no-deal outcomes more likely than any agreement scenario.