The world is facing a growing food security crisis due to the ongoing energy crisis, exacerbated by conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, and the broader Middle East. The S&P Global Institute warns of a 'multidirectional squeeze on world agriculture,' as geopolitical tensions disrupt critical trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway, which previously handled half of the world’s fertilizer feedstock exports, has seen severe disruptions since February, leading to a doubling of fertilizer prices.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a ripple effect on global food production, particularly for staple crops like corn, wheat, and rice, which rely heavily on chemical fertilizers. The United Nations’ Jorge Moreira da Silva warned in April that the disruption could push 45 million more people into hunger. Even though shipping has resumed, the situation remains volatile, with fertilizer production unlikely to recover quickly due to lingering supply chain issues.
The International Monetary Fund projects a 10 percent increase in fertilizer prices by the end of this year, which could drive up food costs by 5 percent in 2026 and another 2.4 percent in 2027. The poorest countries, where food costs make up half of household spending, will be hit hardest. The S&P Global report highlights that higher energy and fertilizer costs, combined with biofuel demand and El Niño-related weather risks, are increasing pressure on food prices and security.
Experts warn that rising food inflation and hunger rates could fuel civil unrest, particularly in regions already facing geopolitical instability. Historically, food price shocks have been a key driver of conflict, as seen during the Arab Spring. The current crisis threatens to exacerbate existing tensions, with grave consequences for the global poor.