Saudi Arabia Sees Strong Economic Recovery Driven by Non-Oil Sectors

Saudi Arabia's economic outlook is shifting towards recovery and growth, driven by non-oil sectors, according to its preliminary budget statement. The country projects a strong real GDP growth of 12.8 percent in 2027, following an expected contraction of 3.6 percent in 2026. This shift is attributed to the expansion of private enterprise, tourism, services, industry, technology, and investment.

The government plans to maintain investment spending and diversify growth sources while gradually reducing the deficit. The budget estimates revenue at SAR 1.202 trillion ($320.5 billion) in 2027, resulting in an anticipated deficit of SAR 190 billion ($50.5 billion). Three revenue scenarios are outlined, with a baseline projection showing receipts at SAR 1.202 trillion and a shortfall of SAR 191 billion.

Economists emphasize the importance of monitoring non-oil GDP growth, inflation, and private sector contributions to GDP. They also highlight regional and global geopolitical developments as major risks to the 2027 budget, particularly through their effects on oil and commodity markets and shipping.