Saudi Arabia Thrives in Middle East Conflict Despite Pipeline Attack

Saudi Arabia's position in the ongoing conflict is stronger than it seems. The recent attack on the East-West pipeline led to concerns that the country was struggling, but this assessment is incorrect.

Two key points make this clear: Iran will emerge weakened and dependent on foreign aid when the war finally ends, and Saudi Arabia's oil exports did not plummet as much as expected during the conflict. In fact, they fell from around 7 million barrels per day in January 2026 to just below 4 mb/d in March and April, but have since rebounded to an average of 5.5 mb/d this month.

The higher oil prices have offset the decline in export volumes, resulting in a windfall for Saudi Arabia. Since early 2026, Brent has risen by 75%, making it more lucrative for the country to sell its oil. This translates to a gain of around $60 billion annually, equivalent to about 6% of Saudi Arabia's GDP.