Saudi Export Pivot Sends Brent Below US$105

Saudi Aramco's decision to redirect crude exports to the Persian Gulf has pushed Brent below $105 per barrel, easing supply fears in the market. This move comes after the company indicated that partial flows through its damaged East-West pipeline could be restored within days.

Despite the recent developments, supply conditions remain exposed to potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, tentative LNG movements and the gradual return of container capacity to the Suez Canal indicate an uneven recovery in regional energy and shipping flows.

The market remains under pressure from major consuming economies, with independent refiners in Shandong reducing run rates to between 50% and 60%. The premiums for Russia's ESPO Blend delivered into Shandong have reached a record $29 per barrel over Brent.