Silver's Quiet Uptrend: Sixth Straight Year of Supply Deficit Drives Price Targets

Silver's price has been quietly rising as it faces a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit. According to the Silver Institute, the metal is running a 46.3 million troy ounce supply deficit for the sixth straight year, with cumulative drawdowns from above-ground stocks reaching an estimated 762 million ounces since 2021.

The World Silver Survey 2026, published in April by the Silver Institute with research by Metals Focus, projects annual deficits of 50 to 80 million ounces persisting through 2030. This is due to the structural supply constraint of about 70% of silver being extracted as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining.

The demand side is also driving up prices, with solar PV absorbing roughly 151 million ounces in 2026, and electric vehicles using approximately 25 to 50 grams of silver per vehicle, which is significantly more than conventional combustion-engine cars. As global EV deliveries are projected to scale from 17.6 million units in 2024 toward 65 to 75 million annually by 2030, automotive demand alone is a meaningful claim on the market.

Bank of America has put forward a base case of $135 an ounce by end-2026, with a bull scenario stretching to $309 if physical shortages intensify. J.P. Morgan expects silver to average $81 an ounce across 2026, already more than double the 2025 average. The wide spread between these numbers reflects genuine disagreement about how much of silver's demand surge is structural versus speculative.