South Africa to Boost Wheat Imports Amid Lowest Harvest in Eight Years

South Africa’s winter crop production for 2026/27 is expected to reach 2.67 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year. However, the outlook varies significantly by crop type. Wheat production is forecast to decline by 5% to 1.81 million tons, marking the lowest level in eight years. This drop is attributed to reduced planted area and dry conditions in parts of the Western Cape, which have negatively impacted yield prospects.

As a result of the smaller wheat crop, South Africa is likely to increase its wheat imports to around 2.0 million tons, up from 1.9 million tons in the previous season. Despite this, no major supply constraints are expected on the global wheat market.

The outlook is more positive for other winter crops. Barley production is projected to rise by 20% to 414,600 tons, canola by 20% to 377,800 tons, and oats by 28% to 55,900 tons. The primary driver for these increases is an expansion in planted area.

An additional risk for importers is Black Sea logistics. Disruptions to shipments through Ukraine remain a key short-term factor supporting global wheat prices.