Statistics Canada’s latest crop production estimates have delivered a mixed outlook for key agricultural commodities. The agency forecasted a significant drop in total wheat production for 2026, pegging it at 36.1 million metric tons (MMT), down nearly 11% from last year’s 40.6 MMT. This figure fell below pre-report trade expectations of around 38.3 MMT, with spring wheat estimated at 26.5 MMT and durum at 6.4 MMT.
Canola production remained stable at 22.05 MMT, despite an 8% decline in yield per acre. The decline was offset by record harvested acreage, with Saskatchewan leading production at 12.7 MMT. Other crops saw mixed results: barley production was estimated at 9.7 MMT, oats fell sharply to 3.0 MMT, and pulse crops like dry peas and lentils also declined. Corn, however, was a bright spot, with production projected at a record 16.55 MMT, while soybeans were estimated at 7.46 MMT.
In overnight trading, soybean meal hit a two-year high at $373 per ton, while crude oil dropped $2 and wheat prices fell 11 cents, dragging down corn and soybeans. US export sales for corn, wheat, and soybeans were within expectations, but meal sales were below expectations. Early yield reports from Illinois and Indiana suggest potential cuts to the national corn yield, which could support corn prices even during harvest pressure.
The USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report, expected on Friday, is anticipated to show 11.268 million head of cattle on feed as of September 1, up 1.7% from last year. August cattle placements and marketings are also expected to be slightly lower than last year.