'Super' El Niño: Global Food System Resilient Thanks to Farm Gains and New Export Hubs

The global food system is more resilient to this year's 'super' El Niño due to decades of farm gains, near-record inventories, and technological advances. Since the 1980s, world farm production has outpaced consumption and population growth, driven by higher-yielding crop varieties, greater use of fertiliser, and improved irrigation and crop protection.

Andrew Whitelaw of Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3 noted that even during drought conditions, better irrigation management and crop science mean 'we can still produce marketable yields.' The potential impact on global food supplies and prices exists, but our improved preparedness means the disruptions are much less severe than they would have been in previous decades.

However, experts warn that an already strong El Niño will intensify in the fourth quarter and early next year, bringing dryness to much of Asia and boosting rainfall across the Americas. The emergence of new export hubs such as Brazil and Russia has added significant supplies to global markets, with Brazil becoming the world's biggest soybean supplier with exports climbing more than 13-fold since 1997/98.

Researchers have also developed drought-tolerant corn hybrids widely adopted across Africa and the Americas since 2015, helping farmers maintain yields during spells of dryness and erratic rainfall. Governments have improved their forecasting and market transparency, allowing them to prepare earlier for such events.