Super El Niño Threatens Fragile Economies Amid War

A record-breaking El Niño event is brewing in the Pacific Ocean and threatening fragile economies already strained by war. This 'Super El Niño' has boosted the odds of drought, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat across parts of the Global South, posing a direct threat to human lives and livelihoods.

The phenomenon occurs on a cycle as sustained warming in the Pacific Ocean interacts with the atmosphere to reshape weather patterns for up to a year or more. Traders, governments, and households often use El Niño events as signals about future seasons, but this one may be particularly severe due to rising global temperatures.

Emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Asia are especially vulnerable to the intense heat and erratic rains associated with El Niño. The event may compound months of higher oil import costs and strained supply chains warped by the war in Iran.

In countries like India and Colombia, previous El Niño events have put pressure on energy systems and food commodities that feed billions globally.