T&T Economy Faces Slow Growth Amid Energy Sector Challenges

The Trinidad and Tobago Central Bank releases its quarterly economic data via the Economic Data-Pack on the last working day of each quarter, but the information provided is limited. One of the key issues with the data is that it does not provide enough current GDP data or information on the energy sector.

The energy sector data, particularly natural gas production and exports, are crucial to assessing the economy's overall performance. The Energy Ministry publishes natural gas production data only up to May 2026, showing a decline of 4.3% from 2025. This suggests that the economy in 2026 is growing more slowly than in 2025.

The International Monetary Fund projected T&T's growth rate at 0.8% in 2026, with the non-energy sector growing by 2.6%. However, companies still struggle to access US dollars, and reserves cover only several months of imports. The emphasis is on accessing gas in Venezuelan waters.

Shell's Manatee field, expected to start producing in the second or third quarter of 2027, should alleviate the gas shortfall that has left Atlantic LNG and Point Lisas petrochemical plants operating below capacity. Cross-border fields are still uncertain due to US sanctions and Venezuela's political situation.