Trump Rejects Iran Deal, Brent Oil Surges Above $106

Brent oil surged above $106 per barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal. The rejection comes as Middle East crude exports recover to their highest level since the conflict began in February, hitting around 12.8 million barrels per day in September.

The market is pricing in a fragile recovery, not a return to normal. While more barrels are moving, Hormuz remains vulnerable and the US-Iran conflict is unresolved. If this week's talks produce a credible path toward reopening the strait more fully, some of the risk premium could unwind.

If diplomacy fails again, Brent above $106 may reflect a market preparing for a longer period of tight supply and geopolitical disruption.