Trump Threatens Oman as US-Iran Deal Expires, Oil Prices Hold Steady

Oil futures remained stable after gaining yesterday as the US-Iran MoU expired. The arrangement's lapse was met with threats from Trump, who rejected an extension of the truce and warned that he would bomb Oman. However, rhetoric alone may not be enough to drive up prices, as historical data suggests that actual supply disruptions are necessary for a sustained premium.

The distinction between rhetoric and physical flows is crucial in this case. Insurance rates, freight, and loadings out of Iranian and Omani terminals can indicate whether the current situation will lead to a genuine supply repricing or just a temporary risk premium. Oman's role as a key back-channel between Washington and Tehran adds an unusual twist, as threats directed at intermediaries have historically complicated deals rather than accelerating them.

Meanwhile, gold's pullback against oil prices and a stable dollar is a familiar pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve's communication. This may indicate that investors are paring back their positions rather than making new bets on market direction. In the copper market, Chinese activity data continues to take center stage, with soft prints outweighing geopolitical risk sentiment.