UAE's OPEC Departure Seen as Limited Near-Term Impact, HSBC Says

HSBC released a research note on Tuesday stating that the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) planned departure from OPEC and OPEC+ in May 2026 will have limited immediate impact on oil markets.

The UAE is one of OPEC's largest producers, but due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since late February, crude exports from the Gulf remain constrained. HSBC expects little change to global oil supply in the near term as shipping access remains restricted.

In fact, any increase in UAE output is capped while this access issue persists. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline has a capacity of up to 1.8 million barrels per day and is likely already operating at or near full utilization.

Once access through Hormuz is restored, the UAE will no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually raise output. HSBC estimates that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) could lift production to more than 4.5 million barrels per day, compared with an OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million bpd for the May 2026 period.

The bank believes this increase in supply will be phased in over 12 to 18 months rather than delivered immediately, aligning with ADNOC's stated intention to raise output gradually and according to demand and market conditions. Additional UAE barrels would help rebuild depleted global oil inventories after recent draws.