Ukraine Grain Forecast Soars to 84.6 Million Tonnes as Exports Hinge on Logistics

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has increased its forecast for Ukraine's 2026 grain and oilseed harvest, estimating it at 84.6 million metric tonnes (MMT). This is a 1 MMT increase from their previous forecast and reflects favorable weather and soil moisture conditions that have improved the yield outlook for early-sown crops.

UGA also estimates that Ukraine's exports in the new 2026/2027 marketing year could reach nearly 52 MMT, up from 41.1 MMT exported last season. However, this optimistic scenario depends entirely on resolving Ukraine's logistical constraints, particularly a full restoration of operations at the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa and an end to Russia's strikes on Ukrainian transport infrastructure.

The UGA highlights that the inability to export a substantial share of the harvest due to logistics problems has a severely negative impact on Ukrainian agricultural producers and domestic price conditions. The association also notes that this could potentially affect Ukraine's broader economy and balance of payments.