Ukraine Grain Output Could Plummet 12 Million Tonnes Without Export Solution

Kernel agricultural holding CEO Yevhen Osypov expects Ukraine's grain production to decline significantly next year due to a possible reduction in acreage by farmers if a solution to resume exports is not found within six months. In a stress scenario, he estimated an underproduction of 12 million tonnes of grain in 2027.

Osypov emphasized that with the seaports closed, Ukraine will be able to export only about 40% of the necessary volume, forcing companies to shift to other business models. He noted that efficiency has been around 50% within recent corridors, which is insufficient, leading Kernel to focus on processing and exporting processed products.

The CEO stated that under its new business model, Kernel is focusing on exporting smaller volumes of products with higher added value while retaining the ability to purchase oilseeds from Ukrainian farmers. He also expressed concerns about the Danube ports' capacity to handle cargo volumes due to security and logistics restrictions as well as external factors.