Ukraine's Sunflower Oil Exports to Remain Limited

Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are expected to be significantly lower than usual due to damage to port and storage infrastructure. The country could export around 300,000 tons of sunflower oil per month between October and March, which is almost half the usual pace of shipments. This reduced capacity is attributed to disruptions caused by attacks on port infrastructure and higher risks for maritime transportation.

The logistics situation in Ukraine has improved compared to September, but exports are still being constrained by these ongoing issues. As a result, exporters' ability to rapidly increase shipments is limited, even when product is available. India could import around 700,000 tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil in MY 2026/27, while Europe remains the largest destination market for Ukraine's sunflower oil exports.

The global sunflower oil market may face challenges due to limited supply from Ukraine and Russia, the two largest Black Sea exporters. Monthly shipments between October and March are forecast at 250-300,000 tons in Russia, compared with around 400,000 tons a year earlier. This reduced supply could remain an important factor for the global sunflower oil market in MY 2026/27.