Disruptions to Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea are driving up prices in Europe. In Italy, milling wheat prices have surged by 24%, while corn prices have climbed 17%, according to Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The increases reflect broader supply chain challenges caused by escalating attacks on Black Sea logistics since late June.
Global grain markets have so far managed supply disruptions thanks to ample stocks, but FAO warns the situation could worsen if the disruptions persist. Dry-bulk shipments through the Bosphorus have plummeted by 48%, and Ukraine exported 20% less grain and pulses in July, September compared to the same period last year. Alternative routes like the Danube and rail transport offer limited capacity and higher costs.
FAO reports global wheat prices rose by 6.3% in September 2026, with corn prices up 5.6%. However, Ukrainian farmers are facing a paradox: while international prices rise, they must sell at lower prices due to export difficulties. Ukrainian milling wheat was priced 31% below Western European levels in early September, and the country needs additional storage for 11 million tons of grain.
Other factors, including restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and El Niño, are adding pressure. Countries heavily reliant on Black Sea wheat imports, particularly in Africa, remain especially vulnerable to these disruptions.