UniCredit Sees Gold Prices Reaching $4,300-$5,000 by End-2026

The gold price has reached $4,380 an ounce, according to recent data. However, UniCredit expects higher interest rates to restrain gains in gold prices despite central banks and investors supporting demand.

The bank's revised forecast range for end-2026 is $4,300-$5,000, with the upper boundary sitting roughly 14% above Friday's close. Despite this, UniCredit retains a neutral to slightly constructive outlook on the gold market.

The Federal Reserve's quarter-point increase to 3.75%-4.00% has sharpened competition from interest-bearing assets and driven the Dollar higher against the Euro. Gold pays no interest, so rising yields can limit demand for it.

However, UniCredit argues that a steepening yield curve caused by stronger growth and higher expected equilibrium interest rates would typically weigh on gold prices. On the other hand, a steepening driven by fiscal deficits, debt-sustainability concerns, and higher term premia can be supportive, particularly if it weakens confidence in the US dollar.