US-Iran War Fails to Spark Predicted Oil Shock

The US-Iran war has been ongoing for eight months, but surprisingly, the oil shock many predicted never materialized. According to Gregory Brew, a senior energy analyst at Eurasia Group and historian of modern Iran, crude prices remain in the $90-$110 band instead of soaring to $250.

This unexpected stability is attributed to several factors: alternative pipeline routes, high global inventories, a significant cut in Chinese imports, and an oil market that has become accustomed to absorbing shocks. Brew notes that these circumstances have allowed super tankers to run dark through the Omani channel, effectively evading Iranian waters.

Despite this temporary reprieve, concerns persist about the long-term implications of the US escort operation moving 9-10 million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz. This Band-Aid solution may only delay the inevitable, as tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate.