US Oil Producers Worry About Price Sustainability Amid Global Tensions

Oil production in major U.S. producing states expanded during the third quarter of 2026, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The survey, conducted from September 16 to 24 among 125 energy companies in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico, found that crude prices have surged since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began in February. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has at times approached $100 per barrel, with global supply chain disruptions hampering regional production and obstructing maritime shipping routes.

Despite ramped-up drilling activity, producers are increasingly cautious about whether elevated prices will persist long enough to justify additional production. 'There is uncertainty about what the future is going to look like,' said Kunal Patel, senior business economist at the Dallas Fed. 'A lot of that is driven by the magnitude of price movements.'

Respondents projected WTI prices at $88 per barrel by the end of 2026, with a wide forecast range from $70 to $126 per barrel underscoring the uncertainty.