The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest supply and demand estimates on October 9, adjusting projections for key crops based on updated data. For corn, the agency lowered the projected 2026-2027 season-average price by a dime to $4.70 per bushel. This follows a significant increase in projected beginning stocks, up 173 million bushels, driven by the September 30 quarterly grain stocks report. U.S. corn production was also revised higher by 234 million bushels to 16 billion, reflecting a 2.7-bushel increase in yield to 181.2 bushels per acre. Despite higher production, total use was increased by 125 million bushels, with exports rising 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion. The net effect was a 282 million bushel increase in ending stocks to 1.8 billion.
Globally, corn production is expected to decline, particularly in the European Union, the Philippines, and Mexico. The EU's production forecast was reduced significantly, with France's output down 38% from the prior year. However, world corn ending stocks still rose by 8.3 million tons to 280.78 million, primarily due to larger U.S. stocks.
For soybeans, the U.S. season-average price remained unchanged at $12 per bushel. Production was forecast at 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million on higher yields. Harvested area was unchanged at 85.9 million acres, with the yield projected at 53.1 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies increased by 17 million bushels to 4.9 billion, partly offset by lower beginning stocks. Exports were raised by 10 million bushels, leading to a 5 million bushel increase in ending stocks to 315 million. Globally, soybean production was increased by 400,000 tons to 442.7 million, with Brazil's production remaining steady at 186 million metric tons.
Wheat saw a dime decrease in the season-average farm price to $6.30 per bushel, driven by increased stocks. U.S. wheat production was slightly higher at 1.534 billion bushels, the smallest since 1970. Domestic use was raised by 10 million bushels, while exports were lowered by 25 million bushels to 750 million. Projected ending stocks were raised by 23 million bushels to 740 million, though still 20% below last year. Globally, wheat ending stocks were fractionally lower at 276.04 million tons, with decreases in the EU, China, Argentina, and Egypt nearly offset by increases for Russia, Australia, and the United States.