USDA Report Reveals Higher Corn Stocks Than Expected

The USDA Grain Stocks report revealed that the 2025-26 marketing year ended with significantly higher corn inventories than anticipated. As of September 1, 2026, there were 2.1 billion bushels of corn remaining in storage, despite a smaller 2025 harvest. This surplus exceeded market expectations, even though the final 2025 corn production estimate was revised downward by 57.3 million bushels.

The report also highlighted adjustments in production costs, with USDA raising the estimated expense for 2025 corn to $900.22 per acre, a 1.7% increase from prior estimates. Soybean costs were similarly adjusted upwards by 1%, reflecting the changing dynamics in agricultural production.

Demand factors, particularly from the ethanol industry, showed a modest increase in corn usage, consuming 5.553 billion bushels during the 2025 marketing year. However, lower production and exports suggested that livestock demand did not offset the surplus, contributing to the higher carryout. Soybean stocks, on the other hand, were relatively stable, with 315 million bushels reported, slightly below previous estimates.

The market reaction was muted, with traders focusing on broader economic factors such as the lack of significant trade commitments from China and stagnant energy markets. The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate hikes also added uncertainty, as higher rates could increase costs for farmers and affect farmland values.