USDA Report Sends Corn Prices Tumbling Below $5 Mark

Recent data from the USDA has sent shockwaves through the corn market, temporarily knocking prices below the $5 per bushel mark. The agency's latest report adjusted the 2025 corn harvest estimate downward by 57 million bushels, bringing it to a still-record 16.96 billion bushels. However, the bigger surprise came with the September 1 corn stocks figure, which climbed to 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from the previous year and the highest in seven years.

The unexpected surge in supply sent December corn futures tumbling below $5 per bushel for the first time in six weeks. Analysts had anticipated a lower figure, closer to 1.92 billion bushels. Despite the price dip, experts like Jon Scheve of Scheve Grain caution against writing off $5 corn entirely. “The market realizes there’s value around $5,” he noted, advising farmers to focus on harvesting before revisiting marketing strategies.

USDA's decision to leave last year’s average yield unchanged at a record 186.5 bushels per acre added to the market's uncertainty. The abundant supply could act as a buffer for the 2026-27 marketing year, potentially adjusting the average yield perception to around 180.4 bushels per acre, according to StoneX analyst Bevan Everett. Further clarity is expected with the upcoming October 9 Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports.

Despite the recent downturn, long-term bullish sentiment persists. Scheve remains optimistic for early 2027, suggesting that while prices may dip further, they are unlikely to fall below $4.90. Strong demand and weather-related crop issues could still fuel a rally, keeping the potential for higher prices on the horizon.