Vitol Warns of $200 Oil if Middle East Exports Disrupt

Oil prices dropped below the $100 per barrel mark on Tuesday as Middle East exports began to recover, but industry leaders warn that the underlying market remains tight. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy noted that around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million bpd of refined products had recently left the Middle East, with depleted Western inventories making these flows critical for market stability ahead of winter.

Hardy cautioned that without these exports, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel. His comments came as Brent crude futures fell $2.77 to $97.55 per barrel, and WTI declined 2.4% to $87.28. The price drop followed news of stronger Gulf exports and plans by G7 countries to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth added that physical oil prices in Asia are closer to $150 per barrel than the $100 level indicated by Brent futures. He highlighted that shrinking supply buffers have made the energy system more fragile amid ongoing Middle East conflict. Vortexa data showed Gulf exports excluding Iran averaged 19.2 million bpd in September, recovering to 91% of pre-war levels for crude and condensate shipments, though refined fuel exports remained at only 60%.

Hardy also warned that European benchmark diesel futures were trading at a premium of roughly $70 per barrel to crude, suggesting that product-market tightness could persist through winter. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser noted that rebuilding depleted global inventories, estimated at 1 billion barrels withdrawn since the conflict began, could take up to two years while meeting demand.