Wheat Prices Hit Three-Week High Amid Fears of Black Sea Export Disruptions

Wheat prices have surged to over three weeks high, reaching around $6.80 per bushel. This move is being driven by renewed concerns about disruptions to Black Sea exports, which are crucial for global supplies. Russia and Ukraine's ongoing attacks on shipping in the region have severely disrupted grain flows, with Ukraine's agricultural exports plummeting during the first half of August.

Traders are increasingly worried that prolonged restrictions on Black Sea ports could significantly reduce Ukrainian wheat shipments during the 2026/27 season. In fact, if attacks continue to restrict access to key ports, Ukraine's wheat exports could fall between 5 million and 10 million metric tons.

The disruption to Black Sea exports is providing an important floor for prices, despite some traders taking profits following the earlier rally. Wheat has also benefited from firmer soybean and corn prices, with ongoing geopolitical tensions keeping global supply risks in focus.