AI Bubble May Trigger Broad Financial Shock, Boosting Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has written an essay titled Situationship, in which he compares the current AI frenzy to the 2008 credit crisis. He argues that the AI boom is not just a technology cycle but a physical infrastructure buildout, with massive spending on data centers, chips, power lines, and real estate.

Hayes notes that this comparison isn't just about scale, but also leverage embedded in the investment. Project finance for data centers and hyperscaler expansions involves layers of debt that don't unwind cleanly when demand assumptions shift.

If AI revenue falls short of expectations, those debt obligations won't vanish, potentially cascading through credit markets like a software-focused tech crash never did. Hayes isn't making a call on when the correction might arrive but mapping a scenario where the unwind triggers a broader financial shock, forcing central banks to react.

The Fed and other authorities would likely flood markets with liquidity again, exactly what happened after the subprime housing collapse. And that's where Bitcoin enters the picture, not as a tech asset but as a monetary hedge against central bank activism.