Bernstein Sees Prediction Markets Reaching $10 Trillion by 2035

Global investment bank Bernstein predicts that prediction markets will reach $10 trillion in annual trading volume by 2035. This forecast is based on a compound annual growth rate of around 70% through 2035.

The current annual trading volume in prediction markets is estimated to be around $410 billion, which is expected to expand significantly over the next few years.

A key shift in the market is from sports-focused activity to financial-asset-focused activity. In 2025, sports contracts accounted for 61% of all contracts, but by 2035, this figure is expected to drop to 38%, while financial-asset-focused contracts will rise to 49%.

Analysts expect the emergence of KPI markets that trade single corporate indicators such as output, delivery performance, and subscriber growth. Perpetual futures are also expanding beyond cryptocurrencies to commodities and single-stock perpetual futures.