Binance Identifies Fifth Crypto Cycle Driven by Tokenized Real-World Assets

Binance's research team has identified five major cycles in the development of the crypto market. The first cycle, from 2011 to 2015, focused on Bitcoin and Litecoin as digital gold and peer-to-peer currencies. The second cycle, from 2016 to 2018, saw projects like Ethereum and EOS explore public chain infrastructure.

The third cycle, from 2019 to 2022, was marked by the DeFi phase, which included decentralized trading and lending, but ultimately collapsed due to lack of real cash flow. The fourth cycle, from 2023 to 2025, saw institutional entry with Bitcoin spot ETFs, but new application paradigms remained limited.

The fifth cycle, starting in 2026, is referred to as 'RWA/DeFi 3.0' and is driven by tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). The on-chain RWA has reached $34.18 billion, with bonds and money market funds being the largest category at $18.29 billion.

The Binance research team also proposed a new metric called 'capital activation rate,' measuring the proportion of tokenized assets truly utilized in on-chain finance, currently around 12%. The report estimates that by 2030, the scale of tokenized stocks could reach about $61 billion in a conservative scenario, and up to $987 billion in an optimistic scenario.