Bitcoin Analysts See Shift in September's Weakest Month Narrative

Historically, September is Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) weakest month. However, analysts argue that this time might be different if key levels hold.

The DeFi Report analyst Michael Nadeau has reduced his odds of a new cycle low for Bitcoin from 60% to 45%. He believes the bullish thesis can remain intact as long as key levels are held.

A crucial bullish signal is Bitcoin rapidly moving into higher cost-basis groups. The largest supply cohort shifted its cost basis from $56,000 to $66,000 to $78,000 to $92,000 in just two weeks. This development mirrors the recovery from the 2022 bear market but at a much faster pace.

Nadeau emphasizes that September's seasonally poor performance leaves room for a near-term correction even if the broader cycle has already turned. A key level to watch is Bitcoin's 200-day moving average, which stands near $69,400. If broken, it could push prices toward the 200-week moving average at around $65,000 and increase the risk of a new cycle low.

The setup resembles early 2023 when Bitcoin corrected by about 19% after testing its 50-week average but ultimately held the 200-day average before continuing upward. Not all indicators have confirmed this turn, however, as spot volumes remain weak, ETF momentum has cooled, and miners continue selling. This contrasts with early 2023 when miners were accumulating Bitcoin.