Bitcoin Avoids Deep Bear Market Stress in Historic Shift

Bitcoin has managed to avoid some of the deepest stress markers seen in past bear markets, according to new analysis. Unlike the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 downturns, Bitcoin never recorded a daily close below its realized price during this cycle. The June low remained above that level, suggesting less severe market-wide stress.

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stayed positive throughout this cycle, another contrast with earlier bear markets. While the Percent Supply in Profit fell to levels similar to November 2022, the scale of losses was smaller. Glassnode notes that holding above the True Market Mean of $77,000 keeps the June low as the shallowest of the three bear-market lows compared.

The next major test for Bitcoin’s recovery lies at $95,000, $97,000, where options positioning and the mean MVRV price converge. Positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes has reached high levels, while negative gamma has built between spot and $92,000. Institutional demand and spot ETF inflows also play a role in shaping the market’s outlook.

Demand indicators have improved, with US spot ETFs recording about $1.3 billion in inflows over five days after the recent squeeze. However, the seven-day average spot volume remains about 30% below its level a year earlier. The defensible conclusion is that this cycle avoided a negative aggregate NUPL reading and a daily close below Realized Price, with light profit-taking and recovering ETF inflows and spot volume.