Bitcoin Bear Market Estimated 80% Over, Key Levels for Next Move Revealed

Bitcoin's bear market has been ongoing for approximately 9.5 months, and experts at The DeFi Report claim that around 80% of this downturn is already behind us. According to their analysis, past bear market cycles averaged one year in duration, and the current market has experienced three major corrections exceeding 30%. One key observation is 'time-based erosion,' where prices remain in a narrow range for extended periods, causing investors to lose interest.

The report highlights that buyers who purchased Bitcoin at peak levels have transferred 52% of their holdings to new, longer-term holders. However, the group that bought between $92,000 and $108,000 has shown surprising resilience, selling only 18% of their assets so far. Analysts predict that this sell-off could climb to 20% to 30% if the process continues.

The DeFi Report considers $65,000 as the fair value for Bitcoin and notes that during the 2022 bear market, there were 107 days below this level. In contrast, the current cycle has only reached 47 days so far. The report also mentions that the market capitalization decline has remained at 5.8%, compared to the 19% losses in previous cycles.

Two key levels regarding the direction of the Bitcoin price are highlighted: $63,000 as a main lower support zone and the $70,000 to $73,000 range as an upper resistance and support reversal zone that needs to be overcome for bull market confirmation. Analysts expect BTC to form a time-sensitive bottom in the $60,000 to $70,000 range unless there is an extra systemic collapse.