Bitcoin Breaks 50-Week Moving Average, Historically Preceding Bull Runs

Bitcoin has cleared a key hurdle that could signal the start of a new bull run. According to Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn, the cryptocurrency's recent move above its 50-week moving average marks an important confirmation that the market's bear phase may have ended.

The 50-week moving average is a widely followed metric in crypto markets, serving as a proxy for Bitcoin's long-term trend. Historically, successful breakouts above this level have marked the end of bear markets and paved the way for pronounced bull runs.

Galaxy examined major Bitcoin slumps since 2011 and found that when the cryptocurrency closed above its 50-week moving average, it often did not revisit its previous lows, suggesting the worst of the decline had already passed. In fact, 11 out of 13 instances where this occurred led to a significant rally.

Notable examples include the 2011 crash, where Bitcoin reclaimed the average in January 2012 and went on to stage a roughly 600-fold rally; the 2014-15 bear market, which saw Bitcoin cross back above the line in October 2015 and climb from around $200 to a record high near $20,000 in December 2017; and the 2022 market bottom, where bitcoin crossed above the average in March 2023 and remained above it for more than two years.